This is the first in a series of four cases.
Ian Desmond, a baseball player for the Washington Nationals team, was deciding whether or not to accept a new contract. Should he take a seven-year contract, and stick it out with the team for for another seven years? He was young and talented, and his star was on the rise. With strong 2013 performance statistics, he was in a good position to negotiate. Or should he take his chances on the free-agent market entering the 2016 season, and command an even better contract?
This case uses decision-tree analysis and could be used in an introductory "Decision Analysis" course, either with the probabilities mentioned in the case or with an assignment to calculate break-even probabilities.