Wilford Marshall is preparing recommendations to Petrosupra Exploration (Petrosupra), an independent oil and gas company, regarding a drilling project in Lafourche Parish, Louisiana, on the Gulf Coast. This was an opportunity to take over Coyote Oil's drilling rights and drill within a year. If oil was found, two years following that, Petrosupra would have the additional opportunity to initiate enhanced recovery, which could provide an additional stream of oil.
To evaluate the contract, Marshall will consider the path that oil prices will take and the amount of oil discovered. Enhanced recovery is a real option for which Marshall must think about a decision rule for the downstream decision and the optimal trigger point for such a rule. All the uncertainties and this option will be simulated to determine the value of (a) the rights to the well and (b) the value of the enhanced recovery option.
Claiborne Chemical (CC) affords the opportunity to reduce the exposure to quantity and price uncertainty that is generated by the well. The beauty of swapping an interest in Petrosupra's well for an interest in the CC opportunity is that it exchanges an exposure to oil price for an opposite exposure to the price of a fuel additive that is negatively correlated to oil price. With some analysis of the risks and the best exchange shares, the project risk can be reduced dramatically.